ADVENT | History

ADVENT-Turkey Relations

"I'm surprised they've held out as long as they have. Makes me wonder if there's something else going on."

- Commander Laura Christiaens, on Turkey

ANKARA – The National Assembly of Turkey officially voted to begin the conscription and nationalization of most major production facilities housed within Turkey. The measure was signed into law hours later by President Ornek Sarper, who had been behind the legislation codifying certain actions into law a few weeks past.

This recent move, while unsurprising, is another signal by the Sarper administration that they are concerned with regional and worldwide developments that threaten Turkish sovereignty. This is only the latest action taken by Turkey in recent months as they turn to more extreme measures to keep the struggling nation afloat.

Turkey has been a staunch critic of ADVENT, and has condemned their gradual expansion and assimilation of multiple countries. While they did not condemn the operation which brought much of the Middle East under ADVENT control, they warned that ADVENT would be interested in nations beyond those who had already engaged them.

Turkish officials have most recently condemned the military coups in Sweden and Finland, with President Sarper stating, "It is difficult to believe these actions arose organically, or through a true loss of faith in the head of state. ADVENT has been known to tip the balance in their favor, and any who do not see this remain under their illusion."

Following the subsequent collapse of the respective Nordic states, all ranking military officials were summoned, and several days later, two were executed for treason. Ankara has not officially blamed ADVENT or insinuated they were meddling in Turkish affairs, but it is clear that many Turkish officials believe that ADVENT is growing more and more impatient with them.

"ADVENT has continually attempted to entice us to join their coalition," Foreign Minister Yasa Koprulu said in a provided statement. "Their agenda is one of assimilation and expansion, and their interests do not align with our own. We have indicated that we will remain neutral in their conflict between them and the Ethereal Collective, and ask that they respect our autonomy."

Despite the insistence of neutrality, the alien threat has not escaped many within the Sarper administration, who are privately concerned about the aliens – with some indicating Sarper himself is not as neutral as he believes. "The aliens are no friend of Turkey," an official who asked to remain anonymous said. "We will not willingly submit to them or ADVENT. But we also realize the potential for conflict with the aliens is higher than ADVENT, and are taking appropriate precautions."

What these precautions are is not fully known. Turkey has instituted a fully fledged draft, recruiting all able-bodied males to serve in combat roles, and females to serve in additional support roles and staff critical facilities such as manufacturing, medical outposts, and ration distribution.

Much of Turkey's internal production has shifted towards arms and military equipment to account for the massive influx of soldiers and staff. Even prior to ADVENT tightening economic sanctions on non-compliant nations, Turkey has shifted production to be self-sustaining and less reliant on imports, which the Sarper administration views as crucial for resisting ADVENT assimilation long-term.

"He saw what happened to Canada, the Middle East, now the Nordic states," another anonymous official stated. "Anyone who was even partially paying attention knew this was coming. It's one reason why Turkey is still independent and the Nordic states had to practically beg to ADVENT to stop it – and you can see how that ended."

An administration spokesman has highlighted Turkey's unique self-sustainability. "Our economy is stable, our people are healthy, and our people are united. We have needed to adapt to the changing world, and we have done so. The world has not heard the last of Turkey, and we will continue to be the independent voice of the region."

An ADVENT spokeswoman provided the following. "We are aware of Turkey and their recent actions. We remain confident that they will be willing to put aside their nationalism for the sake of the Human race."

Of concern to several independent observers has been the fact that Turkey remains in possession of a stockpile of nuclear weapons, which were originally provided under the NATO partnership, specifically stored in the country during the Cold War, and have remained there since then. It should be noted that, technically, Turkey does not own or control the weapons, though they remain stored in the country.

These weapons have not been returned to ADVENT, though it remains unknown how useful they were since ADVENT confirmed that only bombs were provided, not dispensing mechanisms. It is unknown if Turkey is working on delivery systems, but the nuclear arsenal has been moved to an undisclosed location, and the Sarper administration has made it clear they do not intend to return them.

"We are not concerned with Turkey becoming a nuclear threat," Intelligence Director Ian Powell provided to us after an inquiry. "The Sarper administration is aware of the consequences of pursuing nuclear weapons as a deterrent against ADVENT. In the event that Turkey chooses not to exercise appropriate judgement, we will take action. President Sarper is aware of this fact, as we have made it clear to him – and I am confident he will not attempt to subvert it."

A Sarper spokesman was unavailable for comment.

While Turkey continues modernizing and optimizing their nation to adapt to the changing world, what is certain is that ADVENT will be closely monitoring them every step of the way – and it is not out of the question that they have attracted alien attention as well. It seems clear that Turkey is preparing for something, but at this point in time, no one can say for certain.

- Article | Turkish National Assembly Passes Massive Law permitting industrial Nationalization; Institutes nationwide draft

Quisilia,

As the Korean campaign and operations in Southeast Asia continue to intensify, an update on the planned invasion of Europe is due. For the most part, everything appears to be on track for a swift and effective incursion. While the surprise attack on the SAS will significantly hinder our operations, it has provided an unexpected benefit of heavily drawing from European and regional nations.

While this DOES NOT mean that ADVENT is necessarily vulnerable, it does mean that ADVENT is less equipped in certain regions to effectively deal with an unexpected incursion. The Middle East itself is still recovering from ADVENT's conquest, and is likely to be a non-factor in the incursion, even with the significant investment ADVENT is making.

TURKEY OVERVIEW: Turkey has been one of the nations which has, surprisingly, best adapted to ADVENT without making them an enemy. Judging from their history, this is an unsurprising development as Turkey has been very skilled at turning situations to their own advantage.

This was most clear when they rejected supporting or joining the Caliphate, and instead openly and immediately supported Europe and the Western powers during the War on Terror, providing logistics, support, and soldiers to combat what they saw as a threat to their government and people. This earned them significant goodwill and political capital, and their geopolitical location between Europe and the Middle East gave them a significant amount of leverage, despite still clashing with European nations when it came to certain issues and kinds of government.

It is important to understand that while Turkey is intelligent, they are radically nationalistic. The Avant, the ruling political party, have made it no secret that they wish to reestablish the Ottoman Empire, the historical regional power that became Turkey over time, far reduced from its historical glory.

This is the primary reason they have not aligned with ADVENT. They are staunchly opposed to subservience in any capacity. Interestingly, Turkey seriously considered joining ADVENT immediately, as they saw them as a swiftly growing power, but they ultimately decided against pursuing that path when they saw that ADVENT was an institutionalized world government, and not a coalition.

They have, however, made significant adjustments to their country and economy to mitigate reliance on ADVENT, starting from when Canada was annexed. This included shifting to domestic production, instituting military drafts for men and women, nationalizing nearly all businesses (ironically taking inspiration from ADVENT), implementing rationing and regular cash payments to citizens, continuing exports, but reducing or eliminating imports.

The net effect of this has been a lesser quality of life for citizens, but not to the point of deterioration as we have seen in the Nordic and African nations. Despite sanctions, Turkey has been able to persist for the indefinite future because of these measures taken. It is unlikely this can continue forever, but it has bought them significant time.

Time that Turkey believes will allow it to make a decision which best benefits itself. Understand that any decision will be made through this lens.

REGIONAL DESTABILIZATION FAILURE: While this does not necessarily have an impact on the current operation within Turkey, it is relevant in that we were relying on several aspects of this previous operation in the Middle East to serve as incentive for Turkish collaborators. I will briefly recap the operation, and where it went wrong.

Following the aftermath of ADVENT's Operation Deus Vult, they did not actually end the resistance against ADVENT. ADVENT at the time significantly underestimated the threat the region could turn against them, not without stricter measures than the ones they implemented. ADVENT controlled land, but a certain figure had emerged and was gathering soldiers for a long-term guerilla conflict with ADVENT.

Despite our own initial contact with him, we knew very little about him. We only knew that he was a former high-ranking Caliphate official who'd somehow escaped the Commander's purge (or anyone else's), and that he went under the alias of 'the Lion'. The Turkish collaborators were very concerned when they heard this, though they couldn't confirm his identity.

They had few details on his background, only what he could do. He was supposedly one of the best military officials the Caliphate had at their disposal, though was sidelined more and more due to politics, and it is unclear just what role he played during the War on Terror. Regardless, he was an individual who could lead a resurgence.

We had attempted to supply his insurgency, which he accepted, though our agents reported that he was not trusting, and we were only able to – at most – establish a tentative supply agreement, which we determined as acceptable. He was going to attack and destabilize ADVENT, was drawing from former Middle Eastern military, fleeing citizens, popular mobilization forces, Islamic terrorists, and a few sources more.

It was doomed to fail, but it had the impact of pulling ADVENT into a quagmire where they needed to divert swarms of resources and soldiers to contain, which our Turkish collaborators believed they could potentially exploit and reclaim some of the land for themselves. Unfortunately, it appears that ADVENT got to him before a single attack could be launched.

We are still unsure what exactly happened, but this man is now directly advising ADVENT and has been given extensive authority over the Middle Eastern legions. A turn this radical suggests psionic tampering, but we remain uncertain. This is relevant because a Middle Eastern insurgency was one of the parts we put forward to the Turkish collaborators to gain their support, and this has obviously not happened.

The plan is not in jeopardy, but they are not quite as willing to help as they once were.

CONTACT WITH TURKISH OFFICIALS: We made contact with several Turkish officials within military and administration roles. None of them were high-ranking, however all of them were connected to certain hardline-Avant National Assembly politicians – their equivalent of the Aui'Vitakar.

It should be noted that these politicians only became involved after the SAS officially formed with our backing. They were interested in an autonomous Ottoman state allied to the Ethereal Collective, though not subservient to it or other Human powers. We judged this as an acceptable promise to make, and stated our interest.

Since this point, we have worked to plan a scenario where the current Turkish government and National Assembly – neither of which supports allying with us or ADVENT – collapses, and these individuals are placed in charge of a caretaker government which will transition to the new Ottoman state.

While there is a danger in placing hyper-nationalists in power, they serve a use, and the terms of our agreement are clear. These individuals are confident that they can unite the people around the idea of a new Ottoman empire, especially if we annex territory of the region and place it under their direct control. For once, it is not impossible for this to happen, as the nation is very receptive to the idea of a new Ottoman state – even one supported by us.

An investigation has determined that these politicians are in contact with certain members within the Turkish government and military who are higher ranking than those we have been in contact with, indicating that there is a legitimate chance that a complete collapse of the country can be prevented.

This remains a best case scenario. It is unknown if these individuals will survive the initial invasion. They have been appraised of what they need to do when it begins, but it is unknown if they will follow the directions or not.

POINT OF ENGAGEMENT: At this moment, the Hiveship of Hive Commander 079 is preparing to arrive at Earth, and will maneuver over the Turkish nation. Turkey is uniquely vulnerable to exploitation due to a lack of advanced defenses that ADVENT has developed. It is an excellent foothold into both the Middle East and European regions, which we intend to make full use of.

A single Hiveship is capable of supplying enough fighters, transports, and bombers to quickly and effectively take control of the region. We estimate that four million raw combined ground forces will be sufficient to immediately secure the country and begin a direct invasion into Europe and the weakened Middle East.

The establishment of Gateways and fire support from the Hiveship will ensure that the invasion continues without interruption. This operation is being overseen by Hive Commander 079 directly, and he has taken into account the potential usage of the ADVENT Atomic Lance or other equivalent weapons.

The Turkish armed forces are still relying on conventional weapons and equipment and will not pose a significant threat. They have no protection against psionics, allowing them to be easily neutralized non-lethally. Once the existing government has been paralyzed or removed, our collaborators will emerge and establish the agreed-upon Ottoman state.

We anticipate this new front will be critical in securing Europe, Russia, and the Middle East.

PREDICTED ADVENT RESPONSE: We anticipate an immediate mobilization of ADVENT forces. It is possible that ADVENT will attempt to deploy nuclear weapons against various captured Turkish cities including Ankara, the capital of Turkey. We fully expect the nation to be formally annexed and ADVENT to begin a counter-invasion.

However, it is unclear just how prepared ADVENT is for a direct invasion. Many of the European Legions are deployed on other fronts, or postured for defensive actions. The Middle Eastern Legions are not judged to be sufficiently prepared for direct front line combat, by ADVENT's own standards, which is why they are not involved in ADVENT's operation into Africa. Thus, they are not a significant hurdle to overcome.

We anticipate that we will be able to subdue or capture much of the nearby Middle Eastern states, including Syria, Iraq, and parts of Iran. We also judge that we will make significant headway into Europe, capturing Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia at minimum before ADVENT can form a hardened defense.

It is difficult to anticipate how seriously ADVENT will handle this incursion. As of now many major special forces units and individuals are occupied on other fronts. It is unknown if Aegis, Caelior, or the Pantheon will be recalled to defend Europe. XCOM support is almost guaranteed, but it is unknown if they will also mobilize Ethereal support.

This works to our advantage regardless, as we also plan for the invasion of Turkey to be accompanied by a surge along all existing fronts to force ADVENT to decide where and how to defend. The unknown factor is T'Leth, but we do not believe that this will constitute an escalation, so much as an exploitation of an existing vulnerability.

Nonetheless, preparations for T'Leth intervention must be made.

- Zar'Chon'ravarian'vitiary

ADVENT National Overview 87

Nation: Turkey

Author: Director Ian Powell

Recipients: Chancellor Saudia Vyandar; Commander Laura Christiaens; Chief Diplomat Firdaus Hassan; Grand Inquisitor Declan Rodgers; Chief Overseer Keith Watkins

OVERVIEW: Turkey is what is best classified as an 'issue'.

In practical terms, it is a nation which has reached the pinnacle of what carefully controlled nationalism can achieve – a state which is completely bound in national identity with almost no opposition. A nation where people compete against each other for who can be the most hardcore nationalists.

Jingoists, to be precise. Nationalists who refuse to see the flaws in their own state, and believe themselves above others. Turkey is rather infamous for the denial of the Armenian Genocide (and the smaller-scale, but no less horrific Greek Genocide), and to this day still deny it. Of course, this isn't because they don't believe it happened, but their national pride compels them to deny it because admission would be a loss of face and implies that they had done something which could be considered wrong.

This kind of nationalism also prevents them from acting in the best interests of anyone other than themselves. Turkey must benefit more than the other party. It is a zero sum game they perpetuate where they get the better end of the deal, or no one gets anything at all. However, Turkey is managed by admittedly competent figures, both publicly and privately.

The history of how Turkey became what it is today is heavily tied to the Caliphate and the War on Terror, and this report shall get to that point shortly.

JUSTIFICATION: Before continuing, it should be made clear that Turkey poses no actual threat to ADVENT on its own. Despite their continued hold on a small nuclear warhead stockpile, ADVENT Intelligence has confirmed that they are not planning to utilize it in any way against ADVENT, though have considered exploring avenues for using it against alien aggression, and are split on how to accomplish this without triggering an ADVENT retaliation.

Turkey deserves this focus because they pose a significant vulnerability to us from a strategic standpoint. While there are no indications that the Sarper Administration is looking to follow the SAS in making an agreement with the Collective, there is nothing stopping the Collective from invading Turkey with minimal resistance and establishing a direct foothold in the region from where they could strike the Middle East and Europe.

It is important to have a solid grasp on Turkey to properly account for their expected moves, decisions, and for us to eventually integrate them. While there are currently no legal grounds for annexation, ADVENT must be prepared to immediately act if Turkey shows signs of compromise or willingness to deviate from neutrality.

The Collective doubtless sees Turkey as a vulnerability. We have conveyed this fact to Ankara, though they have not responded. ADVENT Intelligence chatter confirms that they are concerned with alien infiltration, though are unwilling to reach out to ADVENT for some kind of partnership. They have cited Operation Deus Vult, the Canada Annexation, and the recent developments in several of the Nordic states as reasons for their reluctance.

A final note is that Turkey is likely able to hold out far longer than we anticipated. The Sarper Administration began the divestment of Turkey from the outside world months ago, and as a result they are not facing the same economic collapse other nations have. They have been strained, but they are not close to breaking.

They will be a factor for the indefinite future.

BACKGROUND | THE AVANT: To understand the present of Turkey requires a revisitation of the past – specifically the Caliphate and the eventual War on Terror. It is common knowledge now that the Caliphate fell into two camps or schools of thought – the Inheritors who initially brought the Caliphate to power, and prioritized a "peaceful" Islamic superstate and the Successors, who advocated more Islamic fundamentalism and militant expansionism. As we all know, the Successors eventually gained power and turned the Caliphate into a terrorist superpower.

What is often hidden in these histories is the fact that there was a very small third faction which had gained some notoriety within the Caliphate – the Avant. They were the exact last thing you would expect to find in an Islamic theocracy – secularists. The Avant were deeply unpopular to both the Inheritors and Successor factions, but they couldn't simply be removed.

Admittedly, a large reason the Avant became as prominent as they did was due to outside intervention. The United States and United Kingdom were interested in a secularized Caliphate, seeing it as less of a threat than the theocratic alternatives. Many of the Avant leadership were directly connected to the CIA and MI6, something which came back to haunt them later.

Another significant supporter of the Avant was Turkey, whose own secular government echoed that of what the Avant were trying to achieve. Turkey was staunchly opposed to a Caliphate or any kind of religious theocracy. A certain number of people were surprised that Turkey didn't join the Caliphate outright, since they are a majority Sunni nation, but that is a fundamental misunderstanding about what Turkey is.

Turkey is a Muslim-majority nation. But the Turks are bound together not by religion, but national and ethnic identity. A great many people want the days of the Ottoman Empire back. They are Muslim, yes, but they are Turks first and foremost. Religion is second to nationalism and sovereignty.

When the Avant were accidentally exposed during a failed operation, and subsequently purged after the Successors took power in the Caliphate, the majority of them died that day. The remainder fled to Turkey who welcomed them with open arms. Once the War on Terror began in earnest, Turkey immediately sided with Europe and used many of the Avant survivors as propaganda against the Caliphate.

After the war is when things began changing further. Everyone expected the Avant to eventually fade now that the Caliphate was defeated. Instead, the opposite happened. The Avant became a fixture in Turkish politics, became hardline nationalists, and merged with Turkey's largest political party at the time, as well as several smaller ones.

Overnight, the Avant were effectively in control of Turkey.

Of course, it was a name which had been co-opted by the nationalists, and with the fall of the Caliphate, there was real optimism for a potentially resurgent Turkish state. This never materialized for several reasons, chief of which being that Turkey was concerned about alienating Europe and the West as a whole.

Instead, Turkey has taken the role of a proxy sponsor of the region, and invested resources, funding, and manpower to several PMFs, terrorist groups and governments friendly to them. They have, of course, used this also to settle longtime ethnic and regional disputes, such as doing whatever they can to deny the Kurds any form of land or safety, to various degrees of success.

However, the Avant have primarily been focused on fully whipping Turkey into a state of self-sustaining nationalism and patriotism. With control of the legislature, presidency, and courts, the Avant have remade their entire school curriculum to whitewash Ottoman history, instituting pledges of loyalty to the Turkish state alongside daily prayers, and emphasizing and investing in Ottoman history and culture. An entire generation has now grown up with these reforms in place, and the Turkish population is as fiercely patriotic and united in their country in a way that the United States would be jealous of.

The Avant are the primary political power in Turkey, and every other political force is either Avant-lite, or Avant-extreme. There is no true opposition party, not because it was quashed, but because no one believes there needs to be an opposition party. It is a level of political cohesion which is extremely difficult to achieve, but Turkey has done it, and we all must deal with it.

LEADERSHIP: Nationalists.

The President of Turkey, and subsequent head of the Avant, is Ornek Sarper, the man who has more or less shaped Turkey into what it has become. Originally part of Turkey's intelligence arm, he was the first one to suggest supporting the Avant, and he personally undertook missions to exfiltrate a half-dozen Avant and got them asylum in Turkey.

His entry into politics came a half-decade later, after the War on Terror was effectively over, and he was the one who got all of the men in the room together, the politicians, the Avant, and the President, and put forward a plan of unity and Turkish resurgence for the next ten years. He is a charismatic speaker, a devout Muslim, and dangerously fanatical. Unfortunately, fanatical does not mean stupid, and Sarper is quite the opposite.

He served as an Assemblyman for quite a few years, being heavily connected to, and later part of Avant leadership; he orchestrated most major legislation passed; effectively set foreign policy, and was widely considered the most powerful man in Turkey by the west. This continued until he naturally sought the Presidency, the office which had its power significantly increased in recent years.

Sarper overwhelmingly won the election, and everyone who ran against him was mostly doing it not to win, but to curry influence within the inevitable Sarper administration. Since taking office, Sarper has surrounded himself with like-minded individuals at all levels of government; firm nationalists with the dream of a new Ottoman empire.

Concerningly, he is not the most hardline Avant there is, and is actually moderate in comparison. The minority hardline faction of the Avant would have invaded Syria years ago, and likely caused another regional conflict. Sarper is more measured, but also more thorough in his nationalism.

He is deeply suspicious of outsiders and foreign influence. He regularly conducts purges of intelligence and military officials, and anyone with the slightest hint of foreign corruption on them. No one is safe, and it has understandably led to a lack of investment or engagement from foreign businesses and nations – something which he seems content with.

REGIONAL STABILITY AND INFLUENCE: Turkey is an extremely stable nation compared to the rest of the Middle East pre-Deus Vult. They had a functioning government, a united population (outside of the scattered and overwhelmingly outnumbered pockets of Kurds), and a successful economy. Turkey had emerged from the entire War on Terror as the only Middle East nation fully intact (outside of Pakistan, to a far lesser degree), and they heavily influenced the immediate region around them.

However, for reasons no one knew at the time, Turkish-backed PMFs, terrorists, warlords, and tribes suffered significant issues, from sabotage to outright assassination. Turkey kept this quiet, since they didn't want to be connected to it, but they were deeply frustrated by what was taking place and couldn't figure out what was happening.

Ironically, thanks to ADVENT now employing the Lion, we have very strong evidence that points to our now-allied dead man as the perpetrator of limiting Turkish reach. They never learned of this, but given the Lion's own views on the Avant and Turkey, it is not a stretch to connect the dots of this particular event.

It is impossible to say now, but it is very likely that Turkey would have attempted to significantly expand within five to ten years. The Middle East was still fractured, and there were ample opportunities which could be exploited. Turkey could have likely sold the invasion as a means of 'bringing stability' and it is difficult to see a coherent western response that would oppose it in any meaningful way.

However, as this did not happen due to the alien invasion and ADVENT, speculation is all we have.

VIEWS ON ADVENT: Suspicious and threatening.

They are fully expecting us to try and assimilate them in some way over the next year. They have been taking precautions to sustain themselves through long-term sanctions, which they have achieved with moderate success. They see the gradual assimilation of the various nations under ADVENT as deeply concerning and threatening to their sovereignty.

They know better than to try and meddle with ADVENT, and Sarper is unlikely to authorize any anti-ADVENT actions or policies outside of rhetoric. Turkey has been treading a very thin line in handling ADVENT. They can't do anything tangible to improve their territorial situation, but they also can't stay silent as they are surrounded.

They see ADVENT as better than the Collective, but that does not mean much to them, as they see both as an unacceptable threat to Turkish sovereignty. They see any siding with the Collective as a death sentence, and see an alliance with ADVENT as the beginning of the end. The citizens are notably supportive of the government position thanks to years of indoctrination, and we cannot expect a popular or political revolution.

Views of ADVENT have noticeably dropped significantly because of two specific events, both tied to ADVENT efforts in the region.

The first is from the Lion, who they have confirmed to be assisting in the development of the Middle East Legion. Sarper was particularly alarmed when he was informed of this. Turkey does not exactly know who he is, but they know for sure that he is someone who should not be alive, and they remain extremely confused as to what he's doing in ADVENT.

They want absolutely nothing to do with him, and purportedly have a department which does nothing but track his movements, statements, and actions. We could potentially utilize this in some way. I have a feeling he might be interested in it, should it be required.

The second is the recent election of Hakeem al-Saud as President of the Middle Eastern States who is another figure who is supposed to be dead, though he had, in reality, merely been hiding. The son of the beloved Inheritor King being alive has been shocking to Turkey, both because he is supposed to be dead, and Turkey hated his father.

Sarper himself is practically viewing Hakeem as the 'new Caliph', due to his immense popularity and how he's effectively secured the Middle East for us. He believes that Hakeem is an ADVENT puppet, but recognizes him as a regional threat and rival and sees his election as ADVENT refining their Middle Eastern strategy. Which is not an incorrect assessment, though as you no doubt know, Hakeem is far from a pure ADVENT puppet - though he was elected through ADVENT's systems and is thus reliable.

A less notable, but nonetheless irritating development for Turkey is the newly revived House of Wisdom, which has more recently taken aim at much of Sarper's policies, philosophy, and goals and mocked or refuted much of them from an Islamist perspective, which has resulted in Sarper deliberately censoring the organization on the Turkish internet. Both because he sees it as deeply insulting, and because he privately is concerned that some of what they say may be convincing to others.

NATIONAL GOALS AND PLANS: Turkey is in a holding pattern of 'wait and see'. Their immediate goals have been to sustain themselves over the next year, and we project they will be able to do so, despite the sanctions. In the meantime, they are signaling an intent to advance their weapons and military technology as far as possible without access to alien materials or knowledge, presumably for self-defense.

The Turkish plan, put simply, is to survive and emerge intact. But I believe that even they know it is a futile prospect. Turkey will eventually fall or be assimilated. It is not a matter of if this will happen.

It is only a matter of when.