The Darbonne government had ambassadors with all the European Confederation governments except Prussia. This wasn't much of a surprise as every Republican government since the end of the Great War, including those who had negotiated with her, considered Tanya a war criminal. Since direct communication was impossible Tanya had gone to the American and British instead.

Ambassador Kennedy had been replaced by a man named Thomas Kane who was in his early thirties and a major stockholder in US Steel. He'd been a big financial supporter of President Sinclair's and this ambassadorship had been his reward. In the Unified States the title of ambassador was highly respected and would give Kane a solid political resume for a future run at either governor or congressman. In the meantime, he could enjoy a year or two enjoying himself in Europe's new favorite getaway. Since Tanya's legalization of prostitution and drug use many of the idle rich all through the world had come to Berun looking for a good time. What all this meant was that while Mr. Kane was generally supportive of Tanya's position, he was no career diplomat used to dealing with a sudden crisis. He promised to send her diplomatic protest against what had happened in Rhineland to the Republican government. He also assured Tanya he would pass on her concerns to his president but could promise nothing more.

Then British ambassador was another matter entirely. Lord Thomas Breckinridge was 62 and had over thirty years' experience in international diplomacy. He had served in various posts all across the world including in Wu Lan, the Akitsukushiman Empire, Washington, Parissee, and had even served in Moskva shortly before the revolution. Hawthorne had sent him to Berun about three months earlier. Having him serve as the ambassador to Prussia was a clear sign that he considered relations with her to be a high priority.

Lord Breckinridge had the calm stoic nature Tanya had learned to expect from all British officials. The ambassador was sitting in her office, he had politely declined an offer of tea or coffee. He sat there placidly as Tanya shared her outrage at what had happened just a few hours ago.

"This is nothing less than act of war! The Republic Army has invaded Rhineland and overthrown the government! They have annexed the entire country! They attacked a small and helpless neighbor without any sort of pretext and without a declaration of war! This cannot be allowed to stand! Impossible!"

The ambassador let her vent and get it all out before he replied with glacial calm and dignity. "Actually, as I understand it, there was a legitimate casus belli. The Premiere stated in his radio address that communist insurgents had gained control of the Rhinish government. He was forced to act in order to secure his own border from possible insurgents."

"Spare me," Tanya rolled her single eye. "The only thing he was protecting himself from was the plebiscite that was going to happen the day after tomorrow. He just didn't want Rhineland to join the European Confederation. That's why he invaded."

"I will have to dispute your description of what occurred as an 'invasion.' Republic troops were already stationed within the Free State. I think it would be more accurate to call the troop movement a reinforcement."

"And what would you call arresting the democratically elected government there?"

"An extreme act I do admit. But when there is danger of a communist uprising extreme acts are warranted. What Premiere Darbonne has done within his own border is evidence of how seriously he takes the red menace. For that matter, President Degurechaff, given your own involvement with a communist revolt I would expect you to be sympathetic."

Tanya snorted. "The communists here blew up the Chancellery and started murdering people in the streets. In Rhineland, all they were doing was setting up a vote. I'd say that's a little different."

Breckinridge nodded. "There have also been bombings and mass riots in the Republic, though fortunately nothing to the level of what happened here. I don't believe I need to mention the atrocities committed in my home country by Celtic terrorists. Prime Minister Hawthorne cannot fault Premiere Darbonne for taking decisive action to prevent such deplorable events."

"All those bombings and riots happened inside the Republic's borders, it had nothing to do with Rhineland!"

Breckinridge shrugged. "It was a preventative measure. If a doctor discovers a malignant tumor, he cuts it out. He does not wait for it to become problematic."

"Don't compare holding a plebiscite to having a tumor. The Republic used military force to prevent a democratically elected government from carrying out a free election! That's what this comes down to!"

"I understand that is your interpretation of events," the ambassador said with serenity. "The Prime Minister and my government do not share it. We accept the Premiere's statement that his action was solely motivated to suppress a potential communist uprising."

"And what about his decision to annex Rhineland?! How exactly is that anything less than an act of war?"

He gave a subtle shrug. "It seems like a peaceful integration of two nations into one. An anschluss, as you might say in your language."

"I think you need to work on your Deutsche. An anschluss means a joining of two willing partners. The Rhinelanders aren't getting any say in this! The decision is being made at the end of a gun!"

"That," the ambassador said with maddening calm. "Is a matter of perspective. The Prime Minister's and the Allied Kingdom's overriding concern in this matter is to maintain the current status quo of Europe."

Tanya glared at him. "I'm not the one threatening the status quo! I'm not the one invading countries!"

"As I have already stated, the Prime Minister recognizes that the Republic has special security interests in Rhinish Free State. We find no fault in Premiere Darbonne's actions."

"Even though it's a blatant violation of the Treaty of Orleans?"

She finally managed to get a reaction from the maddeningly calm man. A look of genuine surprise covered his face. "Can you even count the number of times you have violated the treaty, President Degurechaff? At this point the treaty is already et mortuus est, a dead thing. You yourself killed it. You can hardly demand others to adhere to it now."

She couldn't really deny that, so she tried a different line of argument. "You say your government is interested in maintaining the status quo. The Free Rhinish State has a lot of industry and coal production. If the Republic swallows it whole won't that unbalance things?"

He slipped right back into his calm demeanor. "From a certain perspective I suppose it might. But one could argue that the creation of the European Confederation is a much greater disturbance."

"The EC was created with your governments approval."

"I am not sure approval to be quite accurate, acquiescence might be more appropriate."

"Parse the words how you want. The point is we had an understanding before we acted. This is different."

Breckinridge sat there and let the tiniest smile touch his lips. "Are you certain of that?"

Tanya sucked in a breath. "So that's how it is?"

"The Allied Kingdom and the Republic are still allies. It is natural that we will support each other."

She sent him a cold smile. "I see." Tanya gave a sad shake of her head. "And here I thought we were friends."

"My government would like to have friendly relations with you and the other members of the European Confederation. We consider your countries important outposts in protecting Europe from the Rus. Currently they are focused on Manchuria, but that will not always be the case. We all need to work together to maintain the freedom of the civilized world."

"Stabbing someone in the back isn't a good way to build trust."

"No one has attacked you; no one has broken faith with you. The actions that have occurred in Rhineland are external and do not involve either Prussia or the European Confederation."

"Rhineland is a part of-" she cut herself off before she could finish that sentence with, 'the Empire.' "A part of my constituency. Many of my supporters live there and I will not abandon them."

"You are of course free to negotiate with the Republic, though I am not sure what results you might expect."

She leaned forward a bit. "I am not talking negotiation. I am talking about responding to an act of war."

"I would not recommend that."

"Are you saying the Allied Kingdom will declare war if I intervene in Rhineland's occupation?"

The ambassador paused and considered his words carefully. "The Prime Minister would not be ready to commit the nation to a major conflict at this time. However, if a new war in Europe were to begin you would be held responsible for it. There is no telling what might eventually happen."

"Well, thank you for your candor ambassador." I should have sent the Celts a hundred orbs and a thousand machine guns! "Just so you know I don't think we'll be able to lend you that battalion of aerial mages to fight in Punjab. I may have need for them somewhere else."

XXX

Following the meeting with the ambassador she called an emergency session of her cabinet. Viktoriya was the first to speak.

"I spoke with Count Ciano. After he finished kissing my handing and telling me how beautiful I am he assured me Ildoa will give us all the political and moral support they can."

Tanya shut her eye and rubbed at her temples. "Political and moral, huh? That's just lovely, but what will they do if we go to war with the Republic?"

Viktoriya dug her foot into the carpet and avoided meeting Tanya's gaze. "Ah, the Count reminded me that the Pact of Steel is a defensive treaty, and if we were to invade Rhineland we would be in the role of the aggressor."

"So, no military assistance from Ildoa. Have you spoken with the ambassadors from the Entente Alliance and Dacia?"

Viktoriya nodded. "Both of them said their countries will be neutral if there is a conflict. They both also offered to help with mediation."

"Well, we aren't exactly on the best of terms with them so that's about all we could ask for. The US isn't getting involved, and the British aren't either, but they're clearly supporting the Republic. I don't suppose His Holiness the Cardinal has replied to our protest?"

Viktoriya shook her head. "Not a word."

"International diplomacy is an orgy!" Viktoriya and the other cabinet members looked at her in shock. "Everyone is just out to screw as many people as they can get away with!"

Tanya knew she was being a hypocrite. It wasn't as if she'd played nice either. Countries acted in their own self interest and used or bent the rules of international diplomacy however they liked. The only limit to what they would pull was fear of another country's military or economic retaliation. Strong countries screwed weak ones, that was just reality. In a lot of ways diplomacy was a lot dirtier than actual warfare. At least on the battlefield you usually knew who the enemy was and what objective he was after.

Tanya turned from Viktoriya and shifted her attention to the men seated at the table with her. "IF I decide to intervene in Rhineland, I'll try to limit the bloodshed, but we have to assume a war between the Republic and the members of the EC will follow. Immediate intervention by the Allied Kingdom is unlikely but will become more probable the longer the situation drags out. There should be no other intervention by a major power. What's our situation?"

Goebbels jumped in. "The people are enthusiastic and will whole heartedly support this crusade to save their brothers in arms! The papers and radio will have no difficulty whipping them up into a frenzy!"

Tanya nodded. "That's good at least, support from the home front is crucial."

"As the Chief of Staff, I have a question," Zettour said with a solemn expression. "Will we declare a general mobilization?"

"Not to start," Tanya said. "The Francois haven't mobilized yet. If we do it, they will, and once both sides have mobilized there's no avoiding full scale war. Plus, that would make us look like the aggressor."

"The Republic is obviously the aggressor in this situation," Rerugen pointed out.

"Oh, I agree with you completely, but the British and Americans may see things differently. If a war starts, I want to push the blame onto the Republic. I want to limit any fighting that does take place, so we'll just use the forces we have on hand for now. If Darbonne chooses to escalate that will be his decision."

Zettour frowned. "According to our latest reports the Rhineland is being occupied by at least seven Republican infantry divisions and an armored battalion. There are also significant air assets, both mage and mechanical. If we sent troops into the area, I don't believe there is any chance they will withdraw without a confrontation. And if blood is spilled, I believe a formal state of war will be inevitable."

"But when we fought them at Eichenberg they gave up and went home," Viktoriya said sounding hopeful.

Tanya poured cold water on the idea. "Darbonne wasn't the premiere then. Mister holier than thou is saying he's on a crusade, having marched across the border he can't just back down now. If he does, he's finished."

Zettour nodded. "Which is why I would recommend we begin an immediate mobilization. Otherwise we will be at a severe disadvantage."

Tanya shook her head. "I can't be the first one to mobilize. I have to be seen as the one in the right no matter what. Even if that hurts us militarily. That said, give me an outline of the military situation. Assuming a war between the Francois Republic and the European Confederation, with no other active participants, where do we stand?"

Zettour had never been one to beat around the bush, and he didn't now. "Assuming no other nations intervene I believe we can defeat them within three years."

"Huh? Three years?" Tanya was startled. She knew well that Imperial military doctrine had always centered on the decisive battle. For Prussia, and later the Empire, the idea was to concentrate your forces, find the enemy, and then crush him. Then you could force the enemy to the negotiating table. Campaigns were meant to be short, violent, and decisive. Wars were not supposed to last more than six months.

Naturally the Great War had been the mother of all exceptions to that rule. But even during the wider war there had been many successful individual campaigns and battles that had followed the model. The Great Encirclement and the Battle of Smolensk were the ones that immediately came to mind. Being told by Zettour she could not win quickly was quite disconcerting.

"What do you mean?" Tanya demanded. "We've been pouring everything we can into rearmament. Are equipment should be more modern and our soldiers more freshly trained. We also have a bigger population and industrial base than the Republic."

Zettour nodded. "Which is why we can succeed so long as we fight the Republic alone, but we will have to resign ourselves to winning a long war. We lack the means for a quick victory." He nodded to Rerugen.

He coughed and then spoke. "In terms of raw numbers, once the Republic is fully mobilized, we estimate they will be able to field two point five million men. We, on the other hand, can raise seven million. This excludes any soldiers from the Rhinish Free State. That is potential manpower, we have been feverishly training and equipping men and have a total of two hundred and fifteen divisions within the armies of all the member states."

"What's the size of the Republican army?" Tanya asked.

"Upon mobilization, it should stand at one hundred and ninety divisions."

Tanya nodded. Since coming to power fixing the economy and rearming the military had been her two core objectives. Everything that could be spared from the different national budgets had been poured into rearmament. She'd been desperate to get as strong as possible as quick as possible.

"So, we'll have a significant advantage from the start, and it will only get larger as time passes."

"Not quite," Rerugen said. "The vast majority of those two hundred and fifteen divisions are standard infantry divisions. Most have been fully outfitted with small arms, machine guns, artillery, and transport. However, we currently have only three armored divisions and two mobile infantry divisions. In addition, those units are using the Mark Three panzer, they will be significantly out gunned by the Francois Char B1s. The Republic has nine panzer divisions and two independent brigades."

"Those divisions will likely be spread out and used as infantry support for their wider army," Zettour said. "They still have the same doctrine they used in the Great War and so won't concentrate them as a separate arm. That will degrade their offensive striking power but will make their defensive strength much higher."

"Why mess with what works," Tanya muttered.

That was right, she'd deliberately held off on panzer production until a new Mark 4 model was ready. She'd demanded a panzer that was a match for a T- 34. It would have been a waste of money and resources to build Mark 3s that were already obsolete. That made perfect sense in the long term, but in the short term it meant her forces lacked the weapon needed for a fast, decisive battle. Even if the Francois didn't know what to do with their panzers they would not be quickly beaten in the field. Without enough armor they would have to try and win through artillery barrage and infantry assault. The kind of slow grinding war that had made the Rhine front hell.

"Then there is the disparity in the air," Zettour said.

Rerugen again picked up. "The Republic's Armée de l'Air consists of over four thousand military aircraft, without about two thousand being scouts and dedicated fighters. Their main frontline fighter being the Dewointine D520, which is considered as good a piston engine craft as any in the world. Against this we can amass less than eight hundred, of which, beside about two hundred Focke-Wulf Fw 190s and Messerschmitt Bf 109s they will be outdated and at a severe disadvantage."

"I gave Messerschmitt and Focke-Wulf an order for a thousand planes each, and how many Sturmvogels do we have? Those jet fights and their AARs will hack the Francois from the sky!"

"Once we have sufficient numbers available," Rerugen said. "Currently we have twenty- two operational Sturmvogels."

"Twenty-two? That's all?"

Rerugen nodded. "Both the aircraft's engines and the radar units require a lot of individual attention. The piston engine fighters will be faster to produce but they will also take time. So, for at the time being we will be fighting under an enemy sky."

"What about our aerial mages?" Tanya demanded. Getting the aerial corps back up had been her absolute priority and she has pushed that ahead of everything else. She was pleased to see Rerugen nod his head.

"There we will have a significant advantage. We currently have over six thousand trained aerial mages under arms, the Francois will have slightly less than two thousand. That will definitely help our forces."

"The problem," Zettour said. "Is that on the modern battlefield the aerial mage is not as dominant as in the last war. They are at a significant disadvantage against fighter aircraft. While they can still provide a great deal of support the ground forces, they can no longer control the air."

Tanya had some experience with that from the end of the Great War. The fighters used then still weren't a match for a skilled aerial mage, but they'd become a hell of a lot more dangerous than the models from the start. From the reports she'd read from Weiss it was clear that an aerial mage just could not take on modern aircraft on anything close to equal terms.

"In addition," Zettour continued. "The Republic has a significant strategic bomber force. Once war is declared they will likely begin a bombing campaign of industrial targets in the Ruhr. Given our lack of fighters there will be little we can do to prevent it."

"We'll need to make fighter production a priority, especially the Sturmvogels."

Zettour and Rerugen nodded, but she knew only so much could be done to increase production.

"Then there is the matter of the Republic's navy," Zettour said. "While it is less than a quarter the size of the Royal Navy it will have littler difficulty blockading our ports both in the Baltic and on the Adriatic. We can expect all commercial shipments to be interdicted. As we ourselves have no fleet worth mentioning there is little we can do to oppose this."

Was there just a tiny bit of reproach on Zettour's tone? If there was Tanya didn't give a damn. Even if the British were out to screw her, the deal she'd made with them had allowed her to create the confederation and to begin rearming in the open. Besides, it wasn't as if she could have built a significant navy with the time and resources available even if she'd wanted to.

Everyone around the table looked grim. In the last war the Empire had been on the brink of starvation thanks to the blockade. No one was going to take the idea of being blockaded lightly. That was when the Finance Minister and President of the Reichsbank spoke.

"My Leader," Hjalmar Schacht said. "If we are blockaded our entire economy will collapse within a matter of months."

"Aren't you being a little pessimistic?" Tanya asked. "It took eight years for the empire's economy to crack. We can hold out for awhile even if we are under blockade."

Schact shook his head. "Our economy is nowhere near as strong or as integrated as the Empire's was. Much of our finance is dependent on credit and any major catastrophe will cause the value of the Reichsmark to plummet. Many sectors of industry will also grind to a halt once we are cut off from imports, most especially oil and iron. We are still recovering from the results of hyperinflation and the Depression and our financial system is much more fragile than most realize. I am afraid if there is a major war our economy will shatter."

"We can get oil from Dacia or the Ottoturks," Tanya pointed out. "We can also still get imports through Ildoa."

"That was true in the Great War as well, but it was nowhere near enough to meet our needs."

Tanya took a moment and looked around the table. "So, let me summarize. We have no real hope of winning a quick victory. At best, at best, we might eventually wear the Republic down after three years. Assuming the country hasn't fallen apart before then, and assuming the Allied Kingdom doesn't join in at some point. Even if we win large parts of the Ruhr will be bombed flat, the whole of Rhineland will be a ruined battlefield, and people will be rioting and starving. Does that sum it up?"

Everyone looked back at her in silence.

It's too soon, she realized. It's just too soon. She accepted that another Great War was inevitable, but they weren't ready yet. If she sent troops into Rhineland the best she could hope for was a Pyrrhic victory that would leave Prussia and the other successor states in much worse shape than they were in now. The worst-case scenario was total disaster and defeat.

She had no choice.

"We are not going to intervene in Rhineland. We'll have to let Darbonne and the Republic win this round."