13 Scenarios

In TEH, Sherlock states that there were 13 possible outcomes for Moriarty's rooftop meeting that he and Mycroft has planned for. We saw the one that happened, but what were the other twelve?

…

"I calculated that there were thirteen possibilities once I'd invited Moriarty onto the roof. I wanted to avoid dying if at all possible. The first system involved hurling myself into a parked hospital van filled with washing bags. Secondly, -"

"You really do think I'm thick, don't you? " John drums his fingers on the table in frustration. "I've read all the theories, seen all the crap people have said about how you survived. There's no way you could've survived that way; the angle was too steep. So I ask again," the anger seeps through John's words, and he fights to maintain his demeanor, "how stupid do you think I am?"

Sherlock, for the first time that night, is rendered speechless. John is quite correct, of course, the angle was much too steep for that plan to successfully work, but Sherlock thought it was a good enough explanation. He'd much rather tell John that then tell him the truth. He sighs, "Okay, that part was a lie, but the rest of it is completely –"

The damn bursts, and the anger finally comes pouring from John's words . "No, Sherlock!" Mary grabs his hand in support under the table. John simmers down, biting back tears as he chokes out, "No more lies."

Sherlock swallows thickly. He didn't want to say this and doesn't want to do this, not now, at least. Not when there's thousands of lives to save. He decides it's in his best interested to be honest. "Okay…" Sherlock bites his bloody lips and winces. "The first scenario was that you would kill Moriarty."

John is silent. Then, surprisingly enough, he starts to laugh. "Me? Oh, Sherlock, that's rich –"

"I'm being serious, John." Sherlock leaned forward, lowering his tone to a whisper. "Mycroft was going to use your…" Sherlock struggled to find the right word for John's amazing ability to shoot someone, "skills to dispose of Moriarty."

"As a sniper?"

"Yes."

John chuckles, "I would've enjoyed that." His face softens. "Go on, then, what's the next one."

Sherlock's eyes flicker over to Mary. Can I trust her? He thought. Probably not, but whatever. "The second scenario was the least likely, but still highly possibly. Mycroft and I theorized that Moriarty would have some kind of blackmail, or additional threat to hang over our heads. Recently, there'd been several –"

"Get to the point," John asks, his voice impatient.

"Right. Well, basically, there was a bomb under London that was going to blow the city sky high unless we stopped it."

John is speechless. Thankfully, Mary says exactly what's on his mind. "What was the likelihood of that happening?"

"7%"

"There was a 7% chance that everyone in London was going to die?"

"Yes. You can understand the concern we had over that little fact." Sherlock smirks, happy as can be. "Shall I go on?" John nods, still alarmed. "Good. The third possibility involved a system of Japanese wrestling called Baritsu. Basically, the plan was for me to provoke Moriarty into attacking me, grab him, and throw us both over the edge."

"That's a shit plan," John says plainly.

"Yes. But it was actually the second most likely option…" Sherlock pauses, not sure if he should continue. He does anyway, because he figures there's only so much angrier John can get. "I probably would've done it too, if you hadn't been there watching."

John nods slowly, taking the information in. John is quiet, but the look on his face speaks volumes.

Sherlock lets out a tense breath of air and continues. "Next was the most unpleasant scenario."

"Worst then the last one?"

"Much worse," Sherlock said cheerfully. "The theory was based on… How Moriarty – or rather – how Jim from IT had acted towards me… Mycroft and I came to the conclusion that what Moriarty wanted was likely…"

"You," John finished.

"Yes."

John shuddered. Sherlock remained impassive. There was a silent understanding between the two men about what Sherlock was implying. "Moving on." Sherlock really didn't want to tell John the next one. No more lies, he repeated over and over in his head, gaining the courage to say what was needed. "The next one is completely outlandish and entirely Mycroft's doing, I had absolutely no part in the planning or theorizing of it, so… Yeah." He closed his eyes, not able to look at John. "The possibility that you were Moriarty."

John shook his head, a playful angry smile on his slips. "You've got to be joking."

Sherlock's facial expression was serious, indicating that he was most definitely not joking.

John's eyes soften. "Because of the Pool? You really didn't think I was evil, did you?"

"No," Sherlock said defensively. "It was 100% Mycroft's fault." Sherlock moved quickly on, not wanting to talk about it anymore. "Following that was the possibility that I was a distraction from something bigger."

"Bigger, as in..?"

"An assassination attempt on Mycroft or the Queen, most likely. Measures were in place to protect both, so I won't bore you with the details. Suffice to say that Moriarty loved distractions."

Mary spoke up, "And what happens to you, in this scenario?"

Sherlock stated as if he was reading from a boring textbook, "Well, I die."

Mary's expression was one of compassion. "No one saves you? No one helps you?"

Sherlock shrugged. "I wasn't important."

She smiled, "Oh, you know that's not true."

Well, John picked her, so she can't be that bad, Sherlock thought. He smiled slightly, but it was gone in a second. "Moving on: The next one also involved Mycroft. Moriarty's obsession with him was nearly as intense as his obsession with me, so we had to account for the possibility that Mycroft would be the one to die. In the event that he did die, I was to take over his job as "the British government"."

John struggled to ride the image of a posh-looking Sherlock in a suit and tie with an umbrella out of his mind. "What happens to me in that scenario? Do I become Anthea, or Not!Anthea, or whatever her name is?"

"I suppose."

John frowns.

Sherlock glanced at his watch. This was taking far too long. "I'll make this next bit quick, the next scenario is entirely the same accept with you in place of Mycroft."

John nearly jumps out of his chair. "Me? I die instead of Mycroft?"

Sherlock nods.

John gradually comes down, but only with the aid of Mary. "And…" John pauses, biting the inside of his lip. "What happens to you, in that scenario?"

Sherlock gives him a look that says, You know what would happen to me if you died, John. "It wasn't likely, though. We had to account for it, just in case." He pauses briefly. "You aren't going to like the next one, it's kind of in that same theme. You know, the whole dying thing. Moriarty was threatening to kill you, Mrs. Hudson, and Lestrade if I didn't jump… Mycroft concluded that you three were going to die whether I did or not… So we decided that, if it was the correct possibility, we would let you…"

John's voice seethed with anger. "You would let me, Mrs. Hudson, and Lestrade die." John shook his head, ready to get up out of his chair and punch his friend again.

Sherlock tried to lessen the tensions. "But obviously, that didn't happen! So it's not a big deal –"

"Not a big –" John broke off his shouting after Mary tapped him on the shoulder. "You bastard. You utter bastard."

"John, please understand –"

"It's not even me dying that's upsetting, Sherlock. It's Mrs. Hudson and Lestrade!"

Sherlock nods. "I know, but if you just let me continue."

Mary grabs John by the shoulder and gives him a reassuring look. Practically fuming, John sits still and lets him continue. Sherlock checks his watch again. He has to speed this thing up if he wants to save everyone's lives. "The next three are about Moriarty. One, Moriarty is actually the actor Richard Brooke. Two, Moriarty win. Three, I shoot Moriarty."

John seems fine with all accept the last one. "You shoot Moriarty?" John licks his lips. "Shooting a person's not like shooting the wall, Sherlock."

"I know that." Sherlock actually didn't. Really, he didn't see much difference between a person and a wall. They're both obstructive, limiting, and inconvenient. "The next is pretty depressing and sort of boring. I Actually die."

"That's it? No clever plan? No witty and satirical commentary?" John shakes his head, not believing Sherlock could ever come up with something so mundane.

"I know. Boring, isn't it?" Sherlock rolls his eyes. His mind flashes back to the rooftop. Moriarty, sitting on the edge, balancing a phone in his hand. Staying alive is so boring, isn't it? It's just staying. Sherlock should've pushed Moriarty off the edge right there and saved himself the trouble.

John sighs. "Well, for the record, I'm happy you're not dead."

Mary laughs. Sherlock actually likes her quite a bit. She seems to have her head on straight, especially when she asks the most important question, "Yeah, but how did you actually do it?"

Sherlock explains to them about Molly, and the homeless network, and the body identical to his own.

When he's done with his story, John smirks. "Not how I would've done it, but…"

"Oh," Sherlock sighs. "Everyone's a critic."

...

I hope this satisfied your Sherlockian curiosity!